The Econometric SocietyEdited by: Guido W. Imbens • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262
Econometrica: Mar, 1972, Volume 40, Issue 2
https://doi.org/0012-9682(197203)40:2<277:EOTPFA>2.0.CO;2-4
p. 277-287
Charles R. Nelson
The fact that long term interest rates have been higher on average than short rates in the twentieth century has often been interpreted in the term structure literature as evidence of the existence of positive "liquidity" or term premiums. The purpose of this paper is to point out that an average differential between long and short rates does not necessarily represent a differential between returns realized by holders of long versus short term bonds. In particular, it is shown that if short term rates are positively autocorrelated, interest rate differentials overstate differentials in realized rates of return. We conclude that liquidity or term premiums properly estimated from the Durand yield curve data are not consistent with the liquidity preference theory.
March 5, 2024
The terms of the Editors of the Econometric Society's three journals end June 30, 2025. We are pleased to announce the incoming Editors and to thank the outgoing Editors for their excellent and continuing service.
Econometrica: Since 2019, Guido Imbens has served as the 14th Editor of Econometrica. On July 1, 2025, Marina Halac will become the Editor.
Quantitative Economics: Stéphane Bonhomme has been the Editor of Quantitative Economics since 2021. His successor will be Bernard Salanié.
Theoretical Economics: The Editor of Theoretical Economics since 2021 has been Simon Board. Taking over for him in July 2025 will be Federico Echenique.
Guido, Stéphane, and Simon have been outstanding Editors. We are grateful to them for the work they have done and will continue to do, and we look forward to further congratulating them next year. We believe Marina, Bernard, and Federico will be outstanding successors and we thank them in advance for their service.
Finally, we are grateful to Larry Samuelson for chairing all three search committees, and we thank the search committee members for their hard and fruitful work:
Econometrica: Christian Dustmann, Lars Hansen, Alessandro Lizzeri, George Mailath, Ariel Pakes, Helene Rey, and Elie Tamer.
QE: Kate Ho, Michael Keane, Felix Kubler, Whitney Newey, and Frank Schorfheide.
TE: Jeff Ely, Johannes Horner, Gilat Levy, Meg Meyer, and Ran Spiegler.
